Kenyans have been advised to prepare for the possibility of an earlier-than-usual start to the October–December short rains, with weather experts indicating that some parts of the country could begin receiving pre-season rainfall as early as September.
The latest outlook from the Kenya Meteorological Department (Kenya Met) indicates that while August and much of September are expected to remain generally dry across most parts of the country, scattered rainfall could begin in some regions before the main short-rains season, with above-average rainfall expected in parts of the Coast and north-eastern Kenya during October.
According to Kenya Met, the evolving weather pattern is being influenced by the anticipated development of a strong El Niño event. The department says there is an 81 per cent probability that El Niño will become very strong and a 97 per cent chance that it will persist into early 2027. However, it has cautioned that the strength of El Niño alone does not determine the amount or distribution of rainfall Kenya will ultimately receive.
The department’s August–September–October outlook shows that parts of Kwale, Kilifi, Mombasa, Lamu, Tana River, Taita Taveta and sections of Garissa, Wajir, Mandera and Marsabit are likely to receive above-average rainfall, with much of that rain expected during October. In contrast, many counties in western Kenya, the Rift Valley and parts of northern Kenya are forecast to experience below-average rainfall through August and September before the seasonal rains become established.
Kenya Met also forecasts generally sunny and dry conditions across much of the country during August, accompanied by warmer-than-average temperatures. Parts of Nairobi and the Central Highlands are expected to experience intermittent cool, cloudy conditions with occasional light rainfall or drizzle that may extend into early September before the onset of the short rains.
The forecast has prompted renewed calls for preparedness, particularly in areas historically vulnerable to flooding. Government agencies and county authorities have been urged to monitor updated forecasts and strengthen contingency plans, as above-normal rainfall associated with El Niño can increase the risk of flash floods, overflowing rivers and landslides in susceptible regions.
The changing outlook is also significant for the agricultural sector. Farmers are being encouraged to closely follow Kenya Met’s regular weather updates to help determine the most appropriate planting period and crop choices, especially in areas where rainfall may begin earlier than usual. Weather experts note that while an early onset of rain can benefit agricultural activities, it may also be followed by periods of uneven rainfall, making updated forecasts critical for decision-making.
Kenya Met has stressed that seasonal forecasts are updated as new climate information becomes available and has advised the public not to rely on long-range projections alone. Instead, the department recommends following official monthly and seasonal forecasts to guide farming, transport, water management and disaster preparedness.
Although forecasts suggest the country could transition into a wetter period later in the year, the department maintains that the main October–December rainy season is still expected to begin in October, with any rainfall received in September likely to be localised and limited to specific regions. As a result, Kenyans are being urged to remain informed through official weather advisories as the season approaches.