Kenya’s coffee-growing map is shifting as Laikipia and Taita Taveta record the country’s fastest growth in coffee acreage, with their plantations expanding by 32.8 per cent and 20 per cent respectively in the 2023/24 crop year, according to Agriculture and Food Authority data. The two counties recorded the highest growth in coffee acreage among Kenya’s 33 coffee-growing counties during the period, pointing to a gradual expansion of the crop beyond its traditional highland production zones. The expansion comes as farmers reassess which crops provide the best returns from their land. While coffee remains strongly associated with counties such as Murang’a, Kiambu and Nyeri, producers in newer areas are increasingly incorporating it into their agricultural activities.

The shift is particularly notable because some traditional coffee-growing areas are recording reductions in acreage as farmers turn to other crops or convert agricultural land to alternative uses.

Kenya’s total land under coffee increased modestly during the 2023/24 crop year. AFA data showed that coffee acreage rose from 111,902 hectares in 2022/23 to 113,503 hectares in 2023/24, representing an increase of about 1.43 per cent. The national increase was partly supported by the expansion of coffee production into areas that have not historically been among the country’s main coffee-growing regions. Laikipia’s growth was the strongest, followed by Taita Taveta, Elgeyo Marakwet, Siaya and Baringo. The development suggests that interest in coffee is no longer concentrated entirely in the traditional central Kenya production belt. For farmers, the expansion also reflects a broader commercial question: whether coffee can provide better and more predictable returns than competing crops.

The growth in emerging coffee zones has occurred alongside declining acreage in some established production areas. According to the AFA figures cited by Business Daily, Kiambu lost 623 hectares under coffee during the period, while Murang’a lost 150 hectares. Farmers and landowners in some traditional coffee-growing areas have increasingly considered other uses for their land, including alternative crops and real estate development. Avocado production, in particular, has become an important competitor for agricultural land in parts of central Kenya, where farmers have been attracted by demand in domestic and export markets.

The changes do not necessarily mean Kenya’s established coffee industry is disappearing. Instead, they point to a redistribution of production as individual farmers make decisions based on profitability, input costs, market access and the value they can obtain from available land.

The increase in coffee acreage was accompanied by modest growth in national production. Kenya produced 49,501.23 tonnes of clean coffee in the 2023/24 crop year, up from 48,648.55 tonnes in the previous season, representing an increase of approximately 1.75 per cent. Cooperatives accounted for 34,874.96 tonnes, while estates produced 14,626.27 tonnes. The figures show that the expansion of coffee farming has been accompanied by an increase in output, although the growth in production remained relatively modest compared with the changes in some individual counties.

The stronger movement was recorded in coffee marketing. Coffee sold through the Nairobi Coffee Exchange and direct sales reached about 48,200 tonnes, valued at $229.55 million, equivalent to approximately KSh29.64 billion at the exchange rate used in the report. The volume represented an increase from about 42,001 tonnes valued at $176.43 million in the previous period. The figures indicate that Kenya’s coffee industry generated substantially more export value despite the relatively small increase in national production. Auction sales accounted for the bulk of the marketed coffee. Coffee sold through the Nairobi Coffee Exchange increased to about 41,617 tonnes, while direct sales stood at approximately 6,583 tonnes. This represented a 27.5 per cent increase in auction volumes, while coffee sold through direct channels declined by 29.6 per cent during the period covered by the report.

The emergence of Laikipia and Taita Taveta as rapidly expanding coffee zones provides a different picture of Kenya’s coffee industry. Rather than relying entirely on established production areas, the crop is gradually spreading into counties where farmers see commercial potential in coffee. For Laikipia and Taita Taveta, continued expansion will depend on factors such as suitable growing conditions, access to quality seedlings, farm inputs, extension services, processing facilities and reliable markets. For established coffee counties, meanwhile, declining acreage highlights the pressure facing farmers to remain competitive with alternative crops and non-agricultural uses of land.

The trend also puts greater emphasis on the returns farmers receive from coffee. Higher market prices can encourage producers to maintain or expand their plantations, while weak returns, high production costs or delayed payments can make competing crops more attractive. The latest figures therefore point to a coffee sector undergoing a gradual geographical shift rather than simply expanding uniformly across the country. As production spreads into new counties, the performance of these emerging coffee zones could become increasingly important to Kenya’s overall coffee industry, particularly if farmers in traditional areas continue converting their land to other uses.

For now, Laikipia and Taita Taveta stand out as the fastest-growing coffee-growing areas in the available 2023/24 acreage data, while the broader figures show an industry balancing expansion in new regions against declining coffee land in some of its traditional strongholds.